Spring training’s arrival means, among other things, that this is the time of the year when everyone tries to guess who will make their favorite team’s Opening Day roster.
With due respect to the veterans in each camp trying to make the cut, the real fun with these exercises concerns top prospects — especially now, with the most recent Collective Bargaining Agreement introducing incentives for teams to carry their best youngsters into Opening Day. Nearly gone are the days when clubs would default to sending their top prospects to the minors to manipulate their service time.
Of course, that doesn’t mean every notable prospect is going to be present on Opening Day. Below, I’ve highlighted nine prospects who I perceive to not be locks to make their clubs’ Opening Day rosters. I’ve placed them across three tiers and added analysis on why they’re there while analyzing their chances of breaking camp with the big club.
The tiers are largely self-explanatory, but just to be clear: Tier 1 players have better than a 50-50 shot at making the Opening Day roster; Tier 2 are somewhere in the 25% to 49% range and have their hopes hinge on some external factor; and Tier 3 are even lower than that and seem wholly unlikely to make the cut. Keep in mind that these things can change quickly, and that this is more of an art than a science.
Tier 1: Better than 50/50 chance
1.Kristian Campbell, UTL, Boston Red Sox
The breakout star of last minor-league season, Campbell has emerged as one of the best prospects in the sport after tweaking his swing and adding bat speed. His path to the Opening Day roster may be contingent on how the Red Sox align the rest of their infield — specifically, what comes of the Rafael Devers-Alex Bregman mess. Campbell does have a few things working in his favor, including his positional versatility and the possibility of netting the Red Sox a PPI draft pick if he makes the cut and wins the Rookie of the Year Award. As such, I’m inclined to think Campbell will be present on Opening Day.
2.Matt Shaw, 3B, Chicago Cubs
Shaw’s path to the Opening Day roster opened up once the Cubs moved Isaac Paredes as part of the Kyle Tucker trade. Unfortunately, he’s since suffered an oblique injury that could impact his arrival. (In that scenario, the Cubs would likely turn the hot corner over to free-agent signing Jon Berti and/or Rule 5 selection Gage Workman.) Shaw has strength and a good feel for the barrel, making him a youngster worth watching whenever he gets summoned to the Friendly Confines.
3.Colson Montgomery, SS, Chicago White Sox
Montgomery had one of the worst individual seasons last year of any top prospect, barely keeping his OPS above .700 in Triple-A and delaying his arrival in Chicago. (You know things are rough when you can’t even get a brief look with the worst team in modern history.) Nevertheless, the White Sox didn’t bring in much competition for him at shortstop — unless you count, say, waiver claim Jacob Amaya — suggesting that this is Montgomery’s job to lose. He could help his own case this spring by reminding people why he was so well regarded just 12 months ago.
Tier 2: It just depends
4.Christian Moore, INF, Los Angeles Angels
Under Perry Minasian’s watch, the Angels have made a habit of rushing their first-round draft picks to the majors. Zach Neto (48) and Nolan Schanuel (22) both played in fewer than 50 minor-league games before debuting; Moore will enter this season at 25 and counting. Will he get to 50? Heck, will he get to 30? In theory, incumbent second baseman Luis Rengifo’s potential move to center field could open a spot for Moore. He’s already held his own in Double-A, and it shouldn’t surprise anyone if he’s in the majors within a month of the season opening.
5.Bubba Chandler, RHP, Pittsburgh Pirates
Chandler’s odds took a hit last week when the Pirates picked up Andrew Heaney. I think you can now make a real case that he’s now below 50% and perhaps much lower than that. Why? The Pirates would seem to have four guaranteed starters in camp, plus Bailey Falter who performed better last season than most people realize. Injuries do happen, so you can’t close the door entirely. But it’s possible — if not probable — that the Pirates would turn instead to someone like Mike Burrows or Braxton Aschraft if they needed another starter between now and Opening Day.
6.Drake Baldwin, C, Atlanta Braves
As with Chandler, I think Baldwin’s chances of making the Opening Day roster hinge on the health of the players above him on the depth chart — or, specifically, starting catcher Sean Murphy. Were Murphy to go down at some point this spring, I would have to imagine Baldwin would take over behind the dish on a most-days basis until Murphy is ready to return from the shelf. I don’t believe the same dynamic would be true if the Braves lost backup Chadwick Tromp to the IL; rather, I assume Atlanta would turn to a veteran non-roster invitee like Curt Casali or Sandy León. All that to say: I think Baldwin’s debut will probably come later this season.
7.Jacob Melton, OF, Houston Astros
Melton seemed like a longshot to make the Opening Day roster after a lackluster stint in Triple-A to close out last season. His chances did seem to tick up when Houston did nothing to address their outfield heading into the new year. Alas, the Astros have since reunited with Ben Gamel and have publicly entertained playing Jose Altuve out there (at least on occasion). Factor in that Melton lacks something that some other outfielders in the Astros organization possess — i.e. a spot on the 40-player roster — and I think his debut will have to wait until sometime later in the spring.
8.Bryce Eldridge, 1B, San Francisco Giants
On its face, Eldridge making the Opening Day roster would seem premature. He only celebrated his 20th birthday in October, and he’s yet to appear in double-digit games in either Double- or Triple-A. At the same time, the Giants did rush him up the ladder late last year, seemingly with an eye on him debuting this season. It doesn’t quell speculation that there’s clearly a pathway onto the roster if and when the time comes. I still don’t think Eldridge is all that likely to crack the Opening Day roster, but this is Buster Posey’s first spring in charge and I suppose he could develop a different view over the coming weeks.
9.Dalton Rushing, C/OF, Los Angeles Dodgers
Rushing looks big-league-ready or close to it in my opinion. The catch is that he’s stuck in an organization that has a ton of big-league talent already in place. The Dodgers are likely to carry 13 position players to start the year, with only one of them possessing any form of minor-league option (newcomer/likely starting second baseman Hyeseong Kim.) Barring an injury, there’s simply no room on the roster for Rushing. That’ll change at some point this season, of course, but for now he seems more likely to open the year back in Triple-A.